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May 04 Survivor CommunitiesIn previous posts I have established that I must plan for 3 possible scenarios:
1. A gradual decline that eventually stabilises and gets better. 2. A gradual decline that eventually surpasses people’s ability to cope, thus triggering a descent into a “Mad Max” world. 3. A sudden, severe event that surpasses people’s ability to adapt, triggering a descent into a “Mad Max” world. I regard scenario 1 as the most likely (here in Australia), but 2 and 3 could easily happen.
A threat scenario for 2 and 3 will be posted shortly. But first, you may be wondering why I think it will be enough to spend only a few hundred dollars on food, but thousands of dollars on equipment. Will a stockpile of around 300 kg of cheap calories be enough, even in the Mad Max scenario?
I am supplementing these calories with food from my garden, but here is what I am really counting on: population overshoot.
Population overshoot works in both directions. When times are good, populations breed until they exceed the capacity of their resources. It looks like we have done that. Then, when times are bad, populations collapse until local resources can more than support them.
In human populations, the collapse is caused by starvation, war and disease. If the collapse is severe, then there is no food and it is all over quickly. In that case 1 year of food is plenty. In a less severe collapse, there is some food, but not enough, and it is slower – possibly extending for a few years. In that case 1 year of food can turn “not enough” into enough to cover the few years in question.
After the collapse it is NOT all over. We have reached the point where there are enough resources for the population, but the surviving communities will be guarding those resources jealously. If you are not part of a community, then you need to form one (be able to deliver resources to people in return for skills or resources that they possess), or find a way to join one (accept resources from the community in return for resources or skills you possess). That period of time also needs to be planned for.
Membership in a viable community will be critical to surviving during the recovery period. Simple things like access to a trained dentist could be the difference between life and death for me or my children.
The lesson here:
It is not enough to be a lone survivor. You need to be part of a survivor community. The community must come out of the crisis with resources and a strategy for recovery. More on that later. Comments (2)
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